Date: 11/9/21

Location: JLC CornDome

Our 13th annual Christmas Beer Exchange and Cornhole Spectacular was a tournament for the record books. The Fall Toss Off winners, Andy and George, were drawn as partners again. This is a statistically unlikely event (actually 1 in 195; see footnote below for solution. ) and was met with some hard looks and calls for a redraw. But the team of Dirc and Bryan took them out in the first round 21-3. Dirc and Bryan continued their hot streak almost to the end. When it came time to play Bill and Doc S. from the losers bracket they went cold and were Shicked in the first round. In a surprise move they came back in the second round to win the tournament. No team has ever been Shicked and ended up winning a tournament. Is this a Drian or a Birc ?

Due to many foot faults by Bryan the results are controversial and under review by the board. See photos.

We have too much fun ! Merry Christmas to all.

My Solution: The Fall Toss off had 8 teams = 16 players. The chances of George getting Andy were 1 in 15. The Christmas Spectacular had 7 teams = 14 players. The chances of Andy getting George again were 1 in 13. So 1/15 * 1/13 = 0.005128205128205 or 1 in 195.

This can also be expressed as (7!/(1!(7-1)!))((1/14)*(1/13))(1-((1/14)(1/13))^(7-1). Ben Schweitzer checked my work with the solution below. Yikes !

It was also confirmed by an RStudio simulation run by Ben Schweitzer and Eric Schurr.